Jurassic World II Box office expectations

How do you think JW2 will do in theaters? I'm actually really concerned, as the very week before, the long awaited Incredibles sequel will be released, which I'm sure will be a great success as every Pixar sequel is(let's ignore Cars 2 come to think of it).

Well Inside Out didn't really effect JW so...

Anyway I expect a drop from JW & will finish with around 1.3B WW.

dance2nite wrote:

Well Inside Out didn't really effect JW so...

Anyway I expect a drop from JW & will finish with around 1.3B WW.

Except that The Incredibles was something of a Magnum opus for Pixar pre-Disney buyout. With Inside Out, it was harder to gauge since Pixar had a string of sub-par movies that came before it.

That being said, I expect JW2/JP5 to make $1.2-1.4 billion. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if it makes a little less then $1.2 since 2018 looks to be a packed year of good movies so far.

I'd bet about 1.4 billion.

Baryonyx111 wrote:

I'd bet about 1.4 billion.

1.3-1.4 billion. That seems about right. A small drop is inevitable since that's simply because how sequels work. Not all movies can be like the Captain America trilogy.

I would estimate somewhere between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion if it's great to good, but if word of mouth is divisive/toxic it might not crack a billion. If it has great marketing and strong audience approval I can see it cracking $1.5 and there won't be any real competition between JW2 and The Incredibles 2, just like there wasn't any intense competition between Jurassic World and Inside Out due to slightly different demographics.

Around 1.4 billion sounds about right. Same as Ultron, but with a bigger drop from its predecessor due to JW's critical reception. The Incredibles 2 shouldn't affect it too much.

I was looking at JW's box office and realized something. In terms of domestic opening weekend, JW will be the only movie in the Top 10 that wasn't made by Disney come this May.

Maybe the box office is bigger because of these new storytelling bits from Bayona making the film better. Obviously, the JWFK super bowl trailer earned more views on the 1st day than the 1st JWFK trailer, so that may hint towards something.

A drop from Jurassic World is expected but there's no way it'll drop below a billion. The overseas market has grown far to much to allow that to happen. I'm betting 1.2 to 1.4 billion.

Fallen Kingdom will be release in different weeks all around the world (Europe and UK in the first week, US and Latin America two weeks later...), the same goes for The Incredibles, so they'll both do well.

deinocoop wrote:

Maybe the box office is bigger because of these new storytelling bits from Bayona making the film better. Obviously, the JWFK super bowl trailer earned more views on the 1st day than the 1st JWFK trailer, so that may hint towards something.

I believe it would have to be an incredible type of movie to get past what JW made. I just don’t see it.

It’s hard to tell how it will do. JW did big money because people really wanted to see a new JP movie. Regardless of what faults you might see in it, the movie delivered what it needed to for audiences. I imagine a lot of people went on their phones and checked reviews because they wanted to see it, and when they saw the consensus was “pretty good,” they went and bought tickets. Look at the audience score, which is basically what the critic score would’ve been without the ridiculous “sexism” controversy. Consensus is solid. Jurassic World was a good, entertaining movie, but people saw its flaws.

If Fallen Kingdom is worse, expect a big drop off. If it’s better received, that’ll make people watch it who otherwise maybe had enough of the franchise. If it’s around the same quality, expect a decent drop off.

Whatever happens, I do believe there will be some kind of drop off, and it has to do with structure. Jurassic World was action-packed, with each sequence leading into the next and generally getting bigger and bigger, to a grand crescendo dinosaur fight. It, much like The Avengers, made people want to see it again. It’s not too tedious to sit through a movie twice if it’s just scene after scene of stuff you want to rewatch.

Fallen Kingdom doesn’t have that structure on its side. Its marketing is clearly built to lead people into expecting a Jurassic World structure, but it’s going to be different. It’s going to get more intimate in its second half. It’ll also be darker, both visually and thematically. I mean, yeah, the volcano explosion is incredible to behold, but it ends with this grim image of innocent animals falling in the ocean and drowning. Yeah, there’s going to be a big dinosaur fight at the end, but it’s probably going to end with the raptor dying and dinosaurs being distributed worldwide in shackles. There’s a good chance this will result in a better film, but it’s not going to be as rewatchable. To clarify, I do think this will result in better numbers than just copying JW’s structure. There’s just not really a way to do what Jurassic World did again.

I think it'll do between 1.3-1.4B so basically TJL numbers.

I am expecting pretty much what all of you are expecting also. Somewhere in the $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion range. It could follow a path similar path to Ultron as V.a.nublarensis stated. Though between Avengers and Ultron that was only about a 7% drop between films. A 7% drop for Fallen Kingdom would still give it about $1.55 billion which would be amazing but probably not likely. I don't think it will have as steep of a drop as The Last Jedi did compared to The Force Awakens, that was over 35%! A 35% drop for FK would give it $1.09 billion.

I think FK's number is somewhere between that 7% and 35% drop. Either way it would be incredibly hard to see this film somehow not hit $1 billion. I think it is a shoe in for that easily.

As for opening weekend I have to think Incredibles 2 is going to pull of something similar to what Finding Dory did with probably around $130 million. Give it a 50% drop for weekend 2 and that gives Finding Dory probably about $60-65 million against FK's opening weekend. Very rarely does a weekend cross over $300 million total for all its films. It did do it the weekend Force Awakens came out, but even the JW weekend and TLJ were more in the $270 million range. So figure about $65 million for Incredibles 2, probably $25 million for everything else and that leaves about $180 million for Fallen Kingdom. So that is my prediction for opening weekend, a tremendous but lower total than JW.

Nublar7 wrote:

I am expecting pretty much what all of you are expecting also. Somewhere in the $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion range. It could follow a path similar path to Ultron as V.a.nublarensis stated. Though between Avengers and Ultron that was only about a 7% drop between films. A 7% drop for Fallen Kingdom would still give it about $1.55 billion which would be amazing but probably not likely. I don't think it will have as steep of a drop as The Last Jedi did compared to The Force Awakens, that was over 35%! A 35% drop for FK would give it $1.09 billion.

I think FK's number is somewhere between that 7% and 35% drop. Either way it would be incredibly hard to see this film somehow not hit $1 billion. I think it is a shoe in for that easily.

As for opening weekend I have to think Incredibles 2 is going to pull of something similar to what Finding Dory did with probably around $130 million. Give it a 50% drop for weekend 2 and that gives Finding Dory probably about $60-65 million against FK's opening weekend. Very rarely does a weekend cross over $300 million total for all its films. It did do it the weekend Force Awakens came out, but even the JW weekend and TLJ were more in the $270 million range. So figure about $65 million for Incredibles 2, probably $25 million for everything else and that leaves about $180 million for Fallen Kingdom. So that is my prediction for opening weekend, a tremendous but lower total than JW.

Funny you mention the Avengers movies. I think we have to keep the possibility of Infinity War going on a rampage like Black Panther has been doing and how it might affect Fallen Kingdom.

Rhedosaurus wrote:

Funny you mention the Avengers movies. I think we have to keep the possibility of Infinity War going on a rampage like Black Panther has been doing and how it might affect Fallen Kingdom.

That's what I'm nervous about.

Rhedosaurus wrote:

Funny you mention the Avengers movies. I think we have to keep the possibility of Infinity War going on a rampage like Black Panther has been doing and how it might affect Fallen Kingdom.

Infinity War very well could go on a rampage like Black Panther because it is perhaps the biggest single event movie in years. Honestly when the year is all said and done, it is probably likely the Black Panther and Infinity War are #1 and #2 in some form. Unless we see another run like Jurassic World, Fallen Kingdom will probably be finishing in the #3 spot, which is still amazing since #1 and #2 are likely to each gross $650 million+ domestically.

Anyways, with all that said, I don't see Infinity War having much of an impact on Fallen Kingdom directly. There is just too much of a gap between films and that gap only got bigger when they moved Infinity War up a week. When Fallen Kingdom hits theaters(in the US) that would be Infinity War's 9th weekend. It will be a spec on the radar by mid/end of June. For example Black Panther made $26 million last weekend and that was only week 5 for that film. By the time Black Panther hits weekend 9 it is probably only making $3-4 million. Even big event films like TFA($6 million) and JW($1.9 million) were no threat to anyone 9 weeks later.

I would say the worry wildcard is maybe Solo. I don't think that movie is going to do amazing because there seems to be minimal hype and anticipation even from most Star Wars fans. But because it is Star Wars I am sure it will still make a lot of money, just no where near the levels of TFA, Rogue One and TLJ. But even then, that's the 5th weekend for that film when FK comes out.

Deadpool 2 is 6 weeks before, so again shouldn't be much concern by June 22nd. Really I think the only major threat to put a dent in it is Incredibles 2. Its a different target audience than FK, but there is only so much money to go around that weekend and that movie imo will open huge the weekend before. But if Incredibles 2 maybe only makes like $90-100 million its opening weekend, then I think it could be possible that the potential for a $190-200 million weekend for FK could be on the table.

But I think $180 million is probably a more safer and realistic prediction. At least as of right now.

I tend to keep hyper-conservative estimates, so my prediction is about ~$850m-$900m in the end because I'm expecting a significant drop-off from JW's gross. This is actually what my estimate was for JW, so I could also be wrong here.

Rhedosaurus wrote:

Funny you mention the Avengers movies. I think we have to keep the possibility of Infinity War going on a rampage like Black Panther has been doing and how it might affect Fallen Kingdom.

LOL It won't affect it at all. By the time Fallen Kingdom comes out Infinity War will be on its 8th weekend. It'll hardly be making any money by that point.

Megatron wrote:

Rhedosaurus wrote:

Funny you mention the Avengers movies. I think we have to keep the possibility of Infinity War going on a rampage like Black Panther has been doing and how it might affect Fallen Kingdom.

LOL It won't affect it at all. By the time Fallen Kingdom comes out Infinity War will be on its 8th weekend. It'll hardly be making any money by that point.

I’m not saying infinity war WILL strongly affect JW2, but black panther is a stand-alone movie that is at its 5th weekend dominating. I thinks it’s reasonable to think of a possibility where infinity war is just a total landmark film in terms of box office. It’s been 10 years leading up to this.

I certainly don’t think it’ll be number 1 in June but I do wonder how long it’ll be staying. I can see this being a movie with many repeat viewings as well. I think it’ll be making more than hardly any is what I mean.

We may have different ideas of what hardly any means of course.

Troyal1 wrote:

I’m not saying infinity war WILL strongly affect JW2, but black panther is a stand-alone movie that is at its 5th weekend dominating. I thinks it’s reasonable to think of a possibility where infinity war is just a total landmark film in terms of box office. It’s been 10 years leading up to this.

I certainly don’t think it’ll be number 1 in June but I do wonder how long it’ll be staying. I can see this being a movie with many repeat viewings as well. I think it’ll be making more than hardly any is what I mean.

We may have different ideas of what hardly any means of course.

By the eight weekend any one who wanted to watch Infinity War would have already done so. Any longevity it has will be destroyed by Deadpool 2 and Solo, two films that target the same demographic.

Megatron wrote:

Troyal1 wrote:

I’m not saying infinity war WILL strongly affect JW2, but black panther is a stand-alone movie that is at its 5th weekend dominating. I thinks it’s reasonable to think of a possibility where infinity war is just a total landmark film in terms of box office. It’s been 10 years leading up to this.

I certainly don’t think it’ll be number 1 in June but I do wonder how long it’ll be staying. I can see this being a movie with many repeat viewings as well. I think it’ll be making more than hardly any is what I mean.

We may have different ideas of what hardly any means of course.

By the eight weekend any one who wanted to watch Infinity War would have already done so. Any longevity it has will be destroyed by Deadpool 2 and Solo, two films that target the same demographic.

Don't be so sure. Solo has barely got a marketing campaign where as Infinity War is being marketed like crazy. Not only that, but if you throw in the fans souring on Disney's handling of TLJ as well as all the problems that Solo has had, then we might see a good chance of it either being in second in it's opening weekend or it overtaking Infinity War but IW regaining it's first place status during Solo's second week.

As for Deadpool 2, that is an R-rated comedy that also happens to be a superhero movie, so the demographics are different there.

Last minute domestic weekend prediction:

Previews: 18 million

Full opening day: 60 million (42 million pure Friday)

Saturday: 48 million (-20% from overall opening day, +14% from pure Friday)

Sunday: 42 million (-12.5% from Saturday)

Total opening weekend: 150 million.

The film is currently at $450M WW so it should have no problem getting just over the billion mark.

Still think it will finish with about $1.1-1.2Billion

US Thursday's previews gross is $15.3M.
Really good numbers. JW did about $18M at the time.

universal is projecting a 150 million dollar weekend.

It passed the $700M mark worldwide. It has good chances of reaching $1Billion worldwide at the end of its run.

I have faith it’ll get to 1.1